Journal article
Variance and Rate-of-Change as Early Warning Signals for a Critical Transition in an Aquatic Ecosystem State: A Test Case From Tasmania, Australia
KK Beck, MS Fletcher, PS Gadd, H Heijnis, KM Saunders, GL Simpson, A Zawadzki
Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences | AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION | Published : 2018
DOI: 10.1002/2017JG004135
Abstract
Critical transitions in ecosystem states are often sudden and unpredictable. Consequently, there is a concerted effort to identify measurable early warning signals (EWS) for these important events. Aquatic ecosystems provide an opportunity to observe critical transitions due to their high sensitivity and rapid response times. Using palaeoecological techniques, we can measure properties of time series data to determine if critical transitions are preceded by any measurable ecosystem metrics, that is, identify EWS. Using a suite of palaeoenvironmental data spanning the last 2,400 years (diatoms, pollen, geochemistry, and charcoal influx), we assess whether a critical transition in diatom commu..
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Awarded by Australian Research Council
Funding Acknowledgements
The financial support of this project comes from the Australian Research Council (award: DI110100019 and IN140100050) and Australian Institute of Nuclear Science and Engineering (award: ALNGRA12003P). Gavin L. Simpson was supported by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada's Discovery Grant Program. We would like to thank Tasmania National Parks and Wildlife Service and the Tasmanian Aboriginal Community for their support and allowing us to work on their lands. We would also like to thank Michela Mariani, Anthony Romano, Coralie Tate, and Valentina Vanghi for their assistance in the field. We would like to acknowledge Brent Wolfe and his laboratory at University of Waterloo, Waterloo, Canada (adjunct with Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Canada) for their isotopic analysis and interpretation assistance. The data presented are listed in the tables, references, and supplements, as well as, publicly available on Neotoma (https://www.neotomadb.org/) upon date of publication. We also thank two anonymous referees for their helpful comments on a previous draft.